When will colonies come out?

[dsplaisted]

Does anyone have an estimate of when colonies will come out?

Any guesses?

Edited April 9, 2023 by dsplaisted

[Bej Kerman]

No.

[TickleMyMary]

IF we get that far into development then it's probably a couple of years away at best... It's also fair to point out that it's not going to be "traditional" colonies a la KSP1, more like a design and place directly on the surface rather than a fly the modules there gameplay style.

Science is first though and we haven't heard a peep on that yet... When and how science drops will probably tell us a lot about the rest of the roadmap.

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

1 hour ago, dsplaisted said:

Does anyone have an estimate of when colonies will come out?

Any guesses?

 

1 hour ago, Bej Kerman said:

No.

Yes 

 

Quote

 

JoeSchmuckatelli

Posted Thursday at 02:36 PM

If you think about the things Nate and others have said, and compare what we know, there is little reason for us to think that the Roadmap updates would fit any predictable schedule. 

SCIENCE should be fairly easy as it isn't greatly changed from KSP and should only introduce parts and systems that we are already familiar with from KSP.  So 'not a long wait' for it is a decent / reasonable expectation. 

COLONIES is the thing I hear them get the most excited about.  I'm guessing they've put a lot of work into Colonies, and have also based most of 'the rest of the game' on content they will introduce with this update.  So Colonies won't just add new parts - there are likely to be significant new mechanics introduced.  It's also the first update that makes KSP2 a true '2' and not a reskin.  So we should expect Colonies to be a (if not the) biggest update.  Thus, it will not surprise me if it takes twice as long between Science and Colonies as it does between Release and Science.   It also won't surprise me if Colonies released in stages. 

I don't really see INTERSTELLAR as quite the significant update as Colonies (despite programmers saying that "it's hard") - because while it will add new content and new parts the only really crazy change should be 'going interstellar' with the rest (minus Rask&Rusk) being functionally the same (albeit new). 

EXPLORATION will be a game changer.  Literally.  With this we get to a mature title that is truly expansive of the promise of KSP - and can make KSP2 legendary.  It's the update that takes KSP2 the furthest into 'game' territory (as opposed to sandbox / sim) of all the updates.  Resource gathering and science gathering with a progression system?  Yes, please! It won't surprise me if it follows a similar format as Colonies: Lengthy time between the release of the prior update and it along with a high likelihood of being released in stages. 

MP?  By the time we get here, will anyone still care?  It will be fun for those of us who are likely to be playing KSP2 five years from now... But it won't be a huge 'initial sale' influencing feature.  (Few are going to be looking primarily for a good MP game and stumble upon KSP2 then decide to buy it because of the MP features) Might be a good thing for retention and DLC sales but the likelihood of it being a part of the KSP2 feature set within 2 years?  Shrug. 

All of which is to say that trying to read tea-leaves from the initial patch drops and whenever they drop Science as if it will reveal a predictable schedule? 

Folly! 

 

 

From another thread - if Science is not out by mid June the game is in serious trouble 

Edited April 9, 2023 by JoeSchmuckatelli

[Bej Kerman]

7 minutes ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

Yes 

Speculation

From another thread - if Science is not out by mid June the game is in serious trouble 

Speculation isn't estimation and is mostly baseless. There is no useful answer to OP's question. And your link is broken.

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

21 minutes ago, Bej Kerman said:

Speculation isn't estimation and is mostly baseless

Oh Bej... 

Put aside your dour seriousness for a moment and regard the OP. 

I've done the honor of answering the question precisely 

[Bej Kerman]

24 minutes ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

Oh Bej... 

Put aside your dour seriousness for a moment and regard the OP. 

I've done the honor of answering the question precisely 

There is no answer.

[Alexoff]

In November, Nate already knew that he would not be able to do science in 4 months. It turned out that heating could not be done in half a year from the same time. I am sure that we will see the colonies at least in a year, perhaps only on the video from the developers. How the colonies will work, how we will build them - we were not told, probably because the developers do not have confidence in whether they can do it at the proper level, and then add it to the game. Atmospheric scattering was shown to us a long time ago, for example, but they could not add it to the game.

[Little 908]

Time will tell

[Wetzelrad]

The roadmap doesn't promise very much for the Colony update. Note that "Resource Gathering" is listed under the much-later Exploration update, along with a depiction of ISRU. For this reason, we might anticipate that colony construction will not be limited by resource costs, and likewise that the vehicles built in them will be similarly unlimited. In other words, sandbox mode continues.

Under Colonies, the first bullet point is merely "Colony Parts". Only a few parts would be required to technically fulfill this promise. Maybe habitation, power generation and storage, structural parts, an in-gravity VAB and an orbital VAB, plus launchpads. Most of this work should already be finished, considering the footage we've seen. A new interface to assemble these parts will also be required.

The second bullet point is "Orbital Vehicle Construction". Obviously this will require an interface similar to the VAB but bigger and with more parts. Plenty of work to be done there. More importantly, the game will need to be able to handle extremely large vessels with high part counts.

Guesses can be made as to what else it might include. Colonies probably ought to have their own kerbal populations, which might entail unique systems and mechanics. Additional parts like greenhouses might be required. If the decision is made to include resource management from the get-go, which looks unlikely to me, then the update will also have to include trade routes and resource storage.

In total I think the Colonies update should drop within one year, but players should not expect it to be fully-featured until later on.

[LunarMetis]

Really depends on how long Science Mode will take to finish, so we can get a general sense of how long each milestone update will take. I'm guessing that the Colonies Update will be released sometime between 6 months and a year from now, maybe leaning more towards the latter.

Edited April 10, 2023 by LunarMetis

[stephensmat]

Right now, the only standard we have on updates is the patches. So far, each one has been worth it, and only a few weeks apart. If the third patch is only two/three weeks after April 13, we can consider it a regular schedule.

Remember this is bug-fixing and beta-testing. If fixes come out every few weeks, then we could be ready for Science Upgrade in less time than we fear. Deep dives into the code have shown the majority of it is already there.

'Science' will bring us, more or less, to where KSP1 was, not counting the 'Mining Aspects', which is set for way later down the road. Colonies are what I'm waiting for above all else too,  but I won't cry if it's six months away; because playing KSP2 with Science mode gives me what I have and love already.

Now if I can just get the controls to respond every time when I try to target another ship, and relearn the parts of KSP1 I was supposedly good at, this would be an easy wait.

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

10 hours ago, stephensmat said:

each one

? 

 

[Superfluous J]

21 minutes ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

? 

 

Misplaced comma? Though, "So far each, one has been worth it" isn't syntactically correct so I don't know.

To answer the OP, there are many estimates for when any update past the 2nd (due in a couple days) will come out. Every single one of those is based on nothing but conjecture and supposition.

Or, to put it more succinctly and quote Bej Kerman from this very thread:

On 4/9/2023 at 7:20 AM, Bej Kerman said:

No.

 

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

On 4/9/2023 at 7:19 AM, dsplaisted said:

Any guesses?

 

On 4/9/2023 at 8:47 AM, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

Yes

 

1 hour ago, Superfluous J said:

based on nothing but conjecture and supposition.

And so Bej's response remains incorrect. 

I often guess at the lottery numbers, and just as often am incorrect as to what the numbers will be... But - that guess (as good as anyone's) remains a guess and similarly my conjecture and supposition above remains a valid and honest response to the OPs question. 

A flat 'no' is merely a refusal to guess, and is thus unresponsive. 

[Bej Kerman]

7 minutes ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

A flat 'no' is merely a refusal to guess, and is thus unresponsive. 

A guess is not a useful answer. Until the developers give us timeframes (which themselves may be unreliable as with predicting anything else creative) there is no good answer. You are lending too much credibility to what you concede is just a guess.

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

Again I direct the audience to the OP question posed:

On 4/9/2023 at 7:19 AM, dsplaisted said:

Any guesses?

 

[DerkyJerkyWreaksHavoc]

On 4/9/2023 at 8:38 AM, TickleMyMary said:

IF we get that far into development then it's probably a couple of years away at best...

COUPLE OF YEARS?!?! I think that's WAY too far of an estimate. I would say 1 year away at most given that science comes just before colonies

[Heretic391]

It also depends on whether some of it has been developed already or not. There are certain parts for other things that have been made or at least the design/shape is done such as the colony fuel factories that was shown in feb 2021 as part of show and tell or those awesome nuclear farting rocket engines (excited to use these, they look so derpy).   so the time to officially implement these could be less than we expect. 

 Will see what Wednesdays update has install for us as a baseline for how fast things are fixed / introduced compared to the previous update.

However, its always better to under promise and over deliver. 

[Scarecrow71]

On 4/9/2023 at 4:19 AM, dsplaisted said:

Does anyone have an estimate of when colonies will come out?

Any guesses?

My best guess is that Colonies will come out some time after Science.  If you are asking for a timeline in days/weeks/months/years...that's not guessing, but rather being Nostradamus-like in prognostications.

[Kerbart]

Any guess is based on assumptions on how close parts of the game are to being ready for publication, and to what Intercept considers "ready for publication."

We've learned the hard way that there's quite a chasm between what we players think the base game and its features are and what T2/PD/IG thinks they are. So I agree that any prediction is pretty much based on nothing and is wishful thinking/doomsaying at best.

Once Science is out and we have a few patches under our belt it makes more sense to quote time frames but at this point there's very little to extrapolate on. I used to think "before the end of the year" but given the state the game is in I'm not that confident anymore.

[Little 908]

My prediction is that Interstellar will come out later this year, hate on me all you want, but I made this prediction as soon as it released in early access.

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

1 hour ago, Kerbart said:

I used to think "before the end of the year" but given the state the game is in I'm not that confident anymore.

I waffle between 'what you used to think' (which is what I used to think), and sharing your lack of confidence... but then, part of me looks at how different the first patch was from Release.  If this patch (Wednesday) moves the needle as much as the first - I can see them 'being back on track to complete the Roadmap' in a timely fashion.

...

That whole thing with Release and Patched KSP2  is very, very odd to me.

I find it almost implausible that the game would have been given to us in such a rough state -- especially because Release looked different from what the ESA Event players showcased (c.f. Maneuver nodes and repeating yellow messages, that were different/present during ESA but not Release).  Patched looks like the ESA Event - so much so that I almost feel like Release was a completely different branch from ESA, and that the 0.0.1.0 (Patch) looks like it came off the ESA branch.  (hoping this distinction makes sense)  The part that doesn't make sense is Release.  That first few weeks of not only Buggy as Hell - but also 'why in the world does this work this way / not work at all???' is astonishing.  

 

 

 

 

 

Any review of the ESA event shows Maneuver nodes similar to what we have in Patched KSP2.  Release Maneuver Nodes were the ugly blocky too fat and dysfunctional mess we had to struggle with.  The repeating messages bug was also present during ESA, but not Release... and they showed back up once Patched dropped.

[GGG-GoodGuyGreg]

3 hours ago, Little 908 said:

My prediction is that Interstellar will come out later this year, hate on me all you want, but I made this prediction as soon as it released in early access.

I got 1$ that says it won’t. 

[Little 908]

49 minutes ago, GGG-GoodGuyGreg said:

I got 1$ that says it won’t. 

bet, that's a steal